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Improving Causal Inference

Strengths and Limitations of Natural Experiments

Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

Social scientists increasingly exploit natural experiments in their research. This article surveys recent applications in political science, with the goal of illustrating the inferential advantages provided by this research design. When treatment assignment is less than "as if" random, studies may be something less than natural experiments, and familiar threats to valid causal inference in observational settings can arise. The author proposes a continuum of plausibility for natural experiments, defined by the extent to which treatment assignment is plausibly "as if" random, and locates several leading studies along this continuum.

Key Words: natural experiment • "as if" random • exogenous variation • continuum of plausibility • matching

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