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First published on May 20, 2008, doi:10.1177/1065912908314199

Political Research Quarterly 2008;61:403.

A more recent version of this article appeared on September 1, 2008
 This version was published on June 16, 2008

Article

Do Investors Assess the Credibility of Campaign Commitments? The Case of Mexico’s 2006 Presidential Race

Allyson Lucinda Benton*

Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: allyson.benton{at}cide.edu.


  Abstract
Do investors assess the credibility of campaign rhetoric? To answer this question, I develop several alternative arguments for how investors might consider candidates’ policy platforms and apply them to Mexico’s 2006 presidential race. Statistical analysis of polling trends and the Mexican stock market shows that rising electoral uncertainty lowered market performance, while growing support for either the left-leaning Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) or the marketfriendly Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN) reduced market volatility. These findings reveal that investors discounted López Obrador’s left-leaning rhetoric but did not ignore the effect of a tight race on the value of their assets.


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